MUG/SMUG BET STRATEGY.
So, we've covered the main bets, the bets that you will place the vast majority of the time, when either signing up to new bookies, or placing reload bets with current bookies you've registered with.
Now, we're going to talk a bit about how to keep your bonuses rolling in. Its all about blending in really, looking like you are one of the many millions of regular punters, placing bets week in week out.
Bookies are a business. Fact
Businesses don't like losing money. Fact.
Businesses like profits. Customers' that are consistent, regular, easy to predict and understand. Fact.
The 3 facts above are true of any business.
Think about how you would feel if someone came into your business, every time you had a great offer, abused the offers, time and time again. Would you want their business? Lets assume you run or work in a large supermarket, you put on a Black Friday offer of 30% off all Laptops. You run this offer not because it makes you money, it might actually cost you money! However, it gets people into your store, generates interest, you are hoping they will stay in your store to grab other items they need, like a mouse, or maybe even change their main supermarket shop to your store, becoming weekly customers' buying their meat and two veg from you. It's actually a loss-leader to offer just the Laptop at 30% off, but the hope is you like what you see in store and you stick around, to become a longer term customer. Then in the long run you become a profitable customer!
Bookies are no different, they take a chance to get you on-board and betting with a juicy welcome offer, or tasty reload bonuses. However, these are not for people to abuse willy-nilly. Once this is flagged up, your account will likely get restricted, at best restricted significantly, at worst closed altogether (known in the industry as 'gubbing'!) Their aim is to seek out the profitable players and reward them, not allow abuse of bonuses.
Smug betting, which forms part of Safe2bet's company motto, it basically placing bets on markets with offers (example Bet365 up to £50 IN PLAY OFFER), intending to Matched Bet the offers, BACKING with a BOOKIE and LAYING with an EXCHANGE. Why smug? Well, it rhymes with MUG which is perfect for our motto! More importantly though, you can feel smug about it, you are placing bets, SAFE in the knowledge that you are guaranteed to make a PROFIT from the outcome, regardless of whether that bet wins or loses.
Mug betting, is basically placing bets on markets with no offers. This can either be an out and out mug bet, which is just placing the BACK bet at the Bookie. You might choose to do this for the World Cup Final, or the Grand National as an example. OR, you can choose to mug bet a market with no offer, but also Matched Bet it, so you would place a BACK bet and a LAY bet, the bets will then cancel each other out. There is no offer to take advantage of, so if you are lucky you might break even, make a small amount, or you could lose a small amount (likely less than a few £). However, it helps you to 'blend in' and more importantly helps you to stay off the radar of the bookies looking to restrict or gubb your account. Don't mug bet every account, just the best ones, don't worry, we will advise you the best MB Bookies and you will also learn from your own personal experiences over time.
How do the Bookies know whether to restrict our accounts?
Good question... The simple answer is 'Risk Management'. If you've ever worked in the industry, its widely known that each customer is given a score by which they can be effectively tracked and monitored. Usually this score is 0-100, think of this score as a %. 100 = 100% = no restrictions, you can bet hundreds or even thousands of £'s, in one bet. 0 = 0% = account closed, you can bet Nada!
In reality many Matched Bettors may eventually find themselves somewhere in the 40-80 score bracket. However, if you try to keep under the radar slightly, by acting and betting more like a regular punter, you are much less likely to not be restricted. As your score drops, your account is monitored more closely and if you keep either winning and/or abusing just the free bonuses, it won't be long before you are no longer deemed 'profitable' to the Bookie and your account will either be heavily restricted or even closed for a period of time.
This is not 100% gospel truth though, as we actually had a customer banned with one particular bookie, for losing every bet for a month, around 16 losing bets in total! It turned out, they didn't like his betting style/pattern. He was using just the free bet offers each time, so even though he lost time and time again, he was still gubbed from this particular Bookie! They didn't view his as profitable in the long term. People and computer bots are trained to look out for unusual betting patterns, or free bet bonus abusers. Just be mindful of this when you start Matched Betting.
So what advice do you have for helping us blend in?
We have composed a list of DO's and DO NOT's, this will hopefully help keep your accounts open. Remember we NEED the MUG bets to be able to enjoy the SMUG bets, so MUG betting should be deemed as a necessary requirement once in a while.
Do: Mug bet on a regular basis. This will depend on your regular betting patterns, although there is no rule of thumb, use your common sense, if you bet regularly with Bet365 each week, place a Mug bet each week or every other week.
Do not: Mug bet on weird/odd/unusual markets. If you regularly bet on the English Premier League and UK Horse Racing, don't mug bet on German Politics.
Do: Place your bets on the same day as the event, if possible. Most punters do, so why do you want to act differently, it will arouse suspicion. We're not saying all the time, but just more often than not.
Do not: Always log on, place your bets and immediately log off. Most regular punters stay a while on the website, look around, consider odds. The good thing here is we will likely stick around, as we want to find the best odds before placing our bets.
Do: Stick to using round figures. Of course its normally the odd number on the LAY Exchange side of things, but just make a mental note to stick to £10/£25/£50 etc..
Do not: Smug bet £50 then Mug bet £2. It will make it glaringly obvious what you are up to!
Do: Stick to popular markets, I know we touched above on weird markets, but its worth mentioning again. The Bookie over-round for Premier League and Horse Racing is huge. They are willing to allow more value betting on the bigger sports events.
Do not: Always take the best odds, for example, if you see 11.0 BACK and 11.0 LAY for a horse race, but you also see 18.0 BACK and 19.0 LAY for another horse in the same race, take the higher odds, you will actually notice there is not much of a difference to your profit with the higher odds, yet its more likely to NOT WIN making the Bookie money and ensuring you are not flagged up as a 'greedy odds value hunter'.
Do: Mix up the odds a bit. Most punters do. Don't always BACK the favourite. Sometimes BACK the DRAW, sometimes BACK the OUTSIDER, mixing it up.
Do not: BACK conflicting outcomes in the same event. For example, BACKING the DRAW, but then also BACKING 3-0. Think before you bet. You'd be surprised how many newbies make this mistake!
Do: Leave some money in your accounts, rather than constantly withdrawing all of it, each time you get a winner. Remember Bookies are looking for long-term customers', and 'profitable customers' do NOT withdraw each week leaving nothing in the account. As a general rule we employ, leave an amount in there consistent of that particular bookies reload bets. Example, Bet365 leave around £50 to £100 in your account, or Coral, leave around £20 in your account. This will also help in the number of exclusive offers you get sent personally, they want you to bet that money sat in your account!
Do not: Withdraw all your money instantly from your new betting accounts after a WIN, it's so important, its worth mentioning twice!
Do: Watch streaming videos if your bookie offers it. Most regular punters do. Not all the time, just once in a while. This is easy to do if you bet on a Horse Race as they only last minutes, rather than 90 minutes + half time for a Footy match.
Do not: Open multiple accounts. They can track your IP, your cookies, your name, DOB, address, email, they can see what underwear you put on that morning (well not quite but you catch our drift) if you play with a crooked bat all the time, they'll notice. Some Bookies permit partner betting but check the T's and C's first.
Do: Use other products they offer. Its known that if you play the Bookies casino, or the odd game or lottery, your sportsbook account is less likely to get restricted, why? Well they deem you to be a better, more valuable customer to them.
Do not: Become an 'Outright Gambler'! We promote SAFE BETTING, so please bet responsibly. We are saying consider betting a fiver on the roulette once in a while, certainly not daily or weekly. It's a slippery slope and in NO WAY connected to the safety of Matched Betting.
Hopefully employing some of the tactics above will help keep your accounts fully open and healthy. They are worth a lot more to you OPEN in the long run, than restricted or closed after abusing them in the short term.
Many of our customers' ask, 'which Bookies are more likely to ban us'?
Well some bookies don't like or accept Matched Betting. However, these smaller bookies are in the minority. Of the 30+ Bookies we recommend, around half will offer decent regular reloads. You will learn quickly which ones these are. There is also a common misconception that the bigger bookies DO NOT ban or gub customers'. They DO! If they don't like your style or betting patterns and you are not deemed 'profitable' they WILL ban you, regardless of their status and yearly turnovers. However, if you place your cards right by adopting our MUG/SMUG bet strategies, you will likely remain unrestricted much longer.
Bookies WANT your business, but they also WANT to make money. Remember this when placing your bets and think how to remain valuable to them, ideally losing most of the time but occasionally winning makes you a regular bona fida customer.
Escape the MUG bets, enjoy the SMUG bets. This is a play on words, but essentially means, do not become a gambler, a MUG punter. Become a Matched Bettor. You can then escape the MUG bets to enjoy the SMUG bets. The MUG bets you will place occasionally are acceptable, why, well because these MUG bets will allow you all the SMUG bets.
The Bookie will THINK you are a MUG bettor, but in reality you KNOW you are the SMUG bettor.